Thanks partly largely to the rise in mortgage charges as a result of charge hikes introduced by the Federal Reserve, the as soon as highly regarded housing market in america has been experiencing a critical cooling off in latest months. There are lots of totally different indicators of this cooling, however one of many extra fascinating components is the expansion in obtainable for-sale stock 12 months over 12 months, from 2021 to 2022. Primarily based on month-to-month housing knowledge from Redfin, we analyzed the 200 largest cities within the U.S. by inhabitants and zeroed-in on the change in obtainable stock from Might 2021 to Might 2022 (the most recent knowledge obtainable on the date of publication).
Learn on to search out out which housing markets have skilled the most important progress in obtainable for-sale stock during the last 12 months.
10 Cities The place Housing Stock Has Elevated the Most in 2022
The ten cities which have seen the biggest progress in housing stock from Might 2021 to Might 2022 are an fascinating batch. There are some noticeable geographic patterns, with a number of Illinois cities, California cities, and Colorado cities rating among the many listing of the highest 10 cities. We ranked these 10 cities so as of the share progress in year-over-year housing stock. Take a look at which cities made our listing under.
1. Joliet, Illinois
Situated to the southwest of Chicago, Joliet has witnessed a serious progress in its housing stock during the last 12 months. For these questioning, is the housing market going to crash, it could be in Joliet. In Might 2021, there was an obtainable stock of 163 houses on the market in Joliet, down from 314 houses in Might 2020. This 12 months, nevertheless, obtainable stock in Joliet is up by 188.3%: From 163 houses on the market in Might 2021 to 470 houses in Might 2022. This determine, 470 obtainable houses on the market, is definitely larger than Joliet’s housing stock in Might 2019, when it stood at 405. The variety of residence gross sales in Joliet has additionally leveled off, growing by solely 5.5%, from 220 residence gross sales in Might 2021 to 232 residence gross sales in Might 2022.
The median days a house spends in the marketplace earlier than going off market attributable to sale or pending sale has additionally elevated considerably in Joliet. In Might 2021, the median variety of days on marketplace for a house in Joliet was 5 days; a 12 months later, in Might 2022, the variety of days on market grew by 760%, to a median of 43 days. That is longer than the median of 20 days on market in Might 2020 and 14 days in Might 2019.
2. Roseville, California
This massive suburb of Sacramento has skilled a serious progress in obtainable stock from 2021 to 2022, and the most important enhance in stock of all of the California housing markets on this research. 12 months over 12 months, stock within the Roseville housing market has grown by 132.7%: From 98 obtainable houses on the market in Might 2021 to 228 houses in Might 2022. That’s a exceptional reversal of the development in earlier years, when housing stock in Roseville continued to say no 12 months after 12 months. In Might 2019, Roseville’s for-sale stock was 355, earlier than dropping to 278 houses in Might 2020; it then dropped once more to only 98 houses in Might 2021. The Might 2021 to Might 2022 progress in Roseville’s housing stock is the second largest on this research. On the similar time, the variety of residence gross sales has declined. In Might 2021, the Roseville housing market noticed 228 residence gross sales, earlier than declining by 8.8%, to solely 208 residence gross sales in Might 2022. The change within the median sale value in Roseville additionally displays the slowdown within the housing market. In Might 2021, the median sale value of a house in Roseville was $640,000, rising by 5.9% to succeed in $678,000 in Might 2022. That’s a far cry from the rise in median sale value a 12 months earlier than, when Roseville’s median sale value grew by 36.5%, from $469,000 in Might 2020 to $640,000 in Might 2021.
3. Elk Grove, California
Elk Grove is one other Sacramento suburb to make our listing. From a for-sale stock of solely 81 houses in Might 2021, Elk Grove’s housing stock grew by 112.3% during the last 12 months, reaching 172 houses obtainable in Might 2022. Whereas an obtainable stock of 172 houses is lower than Might 2020’s 195 houses or Might 2019’s 309 houses, the year-over-year enhance in Elk Grove’s stock is placing. The expansion in residence costs has additionally slowed within the Elk Grove housing market. From Might 2020, when the median sale value was $440,000, it elevated by 36.4% in a single 12 months, reaching $600,000 in Might 2021. Nevertheless, from Might 2021 to Might 2022, Elk Grove’s median sale value solely grew by 10.2%, from $600,000 to $661,250. One other necessary issue — sales-to-list ratio, the ratio of the sale value of a house to its itemizing value — has additionally declined during the last 12 months. In Might 2021, the sales-to-list value ratio in Elk Grove was 107.5%. Since then, its declined by 3.6%, right down to a sales-to-list ratio of 103.7%; so, whereas houses are nonetheless promoting for greater than they’re being listed for in Elk Grove, the hole has decreased during the last 12 months.
4. Aurora, Illinois
Right here once more we have now an Illinois metropolis making our listing of the ten cities the place housing stock has elevated essentially the most during the last 12 months. Laying to the west of Chicago, Aurora has seen its housing stock double in only one 12 months: From 214 obtainable houses on the market in Might 2021, as much as 428 houses in Might 2022. This modification is a stark reversal of the development of the final three years, when 12 months after 12 months, the housing stock in Aurora declined repeatedly: In Might 2019, obtainable stock was 504 houses, earlier than dropping to 364 houses in Might 2020, after which dropping once more to 214 houses in Might 2021. The variety of residence gross sales in Aurora has additionally declined, from 242 residence gross sales in Might 2021, down 5.44%, to 229 residence gross sales in Might 2022. That year-over-year change can also be fairly totally different from the expansion within the variety of residence gross sales from 152 gross sales in Might 2020 to 242 residence gross sales in Might 2021. One other issue that’s reflecting the slowdown within the Aurora housing market is the median variety of days on market. In Might 2021, the median variety of days a house spent in the marketplace earlier than being purchased up was simply six days. By Might 2022, this quantity had grown by a staggering 616.7%, to a median of 43 days on market.
5. Lancaster, California
North of Los Angeles, in California’s Antelope Valley, the Lancaster housing market has seen its obtainable stock almost double during the last 12 months: From 202 obtainable houses on the market in Might 2021, up 95% to 394 houses in Might 2022. Lancaster’s housing stock in Might 2022 is definitely larger than it was in Might 2020, when obtainable for-sale stock was 346. The variety of residence gross sales in Lancaster has additionally flatlined, going from 209 residence gross sales in Might 2021 to 209 residence gross sales in Might 2022. The change in residence costs year-on-year can also be placing within the Lancaster housing market. From a median sale value of $402,000 in Might 2021, it grew by simply 14.2%, reaching $459,000 in Might 2022. Evaluate that one-year progress to the expansion from Might 2020 to Might 2021: 30.9%, from a median sale value of $307,000 to $402,000.
6. Naperville, Illinois
Now we’re on our third Illinois metropolis to make the listing of the ten cities the place housing stock has elevated essentially the most during the last 12 months. Not removed from Aurora, Naperville is one other giant Chicago suburb that’s witnessed a dramatic rise in its obtainable housing stock in 2022. From 278 obtainable houses on the market in Might 2021, stock in Naperville jumped by 84.2% within the final 12 months, reaching 512 obtainable houses on the market in Might 2022. Evaluate that one-year change in stock to the pervious one-year interval: From a listing of 565 houses in Might 2020, Naperville housing stock was minimize in half (-50.8%) over the course of the subsequent 12 months, falling to 278 houses obtainable in Might 2021.
The change in residence costs has stayed comparatively steady in Naperville. The median sale value in Naperville was $415,000 in Might 2020, rose by 12.7% to succeed in $467,500 in Might 2021, after which rose once more, by 11.2%, to succeed in $520,000 in Might 2022. Nevertheless, residence gross sales have declined noticeably, by 21.5%, since final 12 months: From 312 residence gross sales in Might 2021 to 245 residence sale in Might 2022. What’s extra, this Illinois metropolis additionally witnessed one of many largest will increase within the variety of days a house spends in the marketplace earlier than being taken off. In Might 2021, the median variety of days on marketplace for a house in Naperville was a mere 5 days; a 12 months later, in Might 2022, the variety of days on marketplace for a house soared by 740%, to a median of 42 days in the marketplace.
7. Boise, Idaho
Boise grew to become an particularly scorching housing market throughout the pandemic, due partly to West Coast residents shopping for up properties, most of them doubtless with jobs that could possibly be carried out remotely. However during the last 12 months, the Boise housing market has seen its obtainable stock climb by 75.1%, from 333 houses on the market in Might 2021 to 583 obtainable houses in Might 2022. That’s fairly a unique year-over-year change than had occurred between Might 2020 to Might 2021: Boise housing stock dropped by 48.5%, from 646 obtainable houses in Might 2020 to 333 obtainable houses in Might 2021. House costs have continued to rise within the Boise housing market, by 21.9%, from $480,000 in Might 2021 to $585,000 in Might 2022. Nevertheless, this 21.9%, although strong, is sort of half as quick as the expansion (42%) in residence costs from Might 2020 ($338,000) to Might 2021 ($480,000). House gross sales in Boise additionally witnessed a decline, going from 413 residence gross sales in Might 2021, down 14% to succeed in 355 residence gross sales in Might 2022.
8. Aurora, Colorado
Sure certainly, there may be one other metropolis named Aurora to make this listing. A suburb outdoors of Denver that’s turn into a sizeable metropolis in its personal proper, Aurora has seen its housing stock enhance during the last 12 months by almost three-quarters (74%): From an obtainable stock of 246 houses in Might 2021 to an obtainable stock of 428 houses in Might 2022. House costs in Aurora have slowed their year-on-year progress a bit. From Might 2020, the median sale value was $365,750, earlier than rising by 20.8% to $442,000 in Might 2021. After that, residence costs nonetheless elevated, however by 13.1%, from $442,000 in Might 2021 to $500,000 in Might 2022.
9. Thornton, Colorado
Thornton is the second of two Colorado cities to make this listing of the housing markets the place stock has elevated essentially the most in 2022. The expansion in Thornton’s obtainable stock just isn’t far behind No. 8 Aurora’s: From an obtainable stock of 86 houses in Might 2021, it rose by 70.9% in a single 12 months, reaching a brand new obtainable stock of 147 houses. The build-up in housing stock in Thornton might have been higher had not residence gross sales managed to extend 12 months over 12 months. In Might 2021, there have been 227 residence gross sales, which rose by 14.1%, to succeed in 259 residence gross sales in Might 2022. House costs within the Thornton housing market have continued to rise, however at a slower tempo from the earlier one-year interval. From Might 2020, when the median sale value was $389,950, costs rose by 21.8% to succeed in a median sale value of $475,000 in Might 2021; from there, costs elevated by 16.8%, reaching a median sale value of $555,000 in Might 2022.
10. Murfreesboro, Tennessee
The final metropolis to make our listing of the ten main cities which have skilled the most important enhance in housing stock is Murfreesboro. During the last 12 months, obtainable stock within the Murfreesboro housing market grew by slightly below two-thirds (60.6%): From an obtainable stock of 188 houses in Might 2021, as much as a listing of 302 houses in Might 2022. However whereas the rise in Murfreesboro’s housing stock from Might 2021 to Might 2022 was the tenth largest within the research, the slashing within the metropolis’s stock from 2020 to 2021 was staggering. In Might 2020, obtainable stock in Murfreesboro stood at 844 houses, from the place it then dropped by an unimaginable 77.7% — that means, greater than three-quarters of obtainable houses on the market disappeared from the market — reaching 188 houses in Might 2021. Thus, whereas housing stock is increase in Murfreesboro in 2022, it’s nonetheless means down from the place it stood in Might 2020 (844 houses) and Might 2019 (904 houses).
The Backside Line on “Is the Housing Market Going to Crash?”
On the subject of 2022 housing market predictions, only some issues might be stated with some stage of above-average confidence. The Colorado housing market has seen its main cities witness strong, double-digit-teens charges of progress in residence costs from Might 2021 to Might 2022:
- Thornton median sale value YOY progress: 16.8%
- Lakewood median sale value YOY progress: 15.4%
- Fort Collins median sale value YOY progress: 14.3%
- Aurora median sale value YOY progress: 13.1%
- Denver median sale value YOY progress: 11.4%
Evaluate all these year-over-year progress figures to the 15.1% Might 2021-to-Might 2022 charge for Colorado state total; and in opposition to the 14.8% Might 2021-to-Might 2022 charge for the nation as a complete. Colorado’s year-over-year adjustments in median sale value intently mirrors nationwide charges of change, with each the state of Colorado and the U.S. experiencing their highest value progress charges in Might 2021 (24.7% for Colorado and 25.8% for the U.S. in median sale value progress from Might 2020 to Might 2021). Thus, in terms of 2022 housing market predictions for Colorado, a lot of its housing exercise will comply with what goes on nationally. Modifications in stock year-over-year in Colorado intently comply with nationwide charges of annual change, each reaching their most up-to-date highs in Might 2022: Colorado skilled a 14.9% enhance, and the U.S. skilled a 1.8% enhance of their ranges of housing stock that month since Might 2021.
On the subject of 2022 housing market predictions for the Illinois housing market, the traits are below heavy affect from longer-term developments — like the consequences of deindustrialization nonetheless affecting Chicago and its surrounding space — in addition to extra rapid influences like in different states, such because the motion of the Millennial era into homeownership, pandemic-induced swings and surge in demand, and the fed funds charge hikes in 2022, which have dampened the frenzy in most housing markets. Over the 12 months from Might 2021 to Might 2022, the Illinois year-over-year progress in housing stock was 27%, far in extra of the nationwide common charge of 1.8%, however inside vary of Aurora’s 21.3% annual progress. Illinois residence value progress year-over-year peaked at 20.1% in June 2021, a month after the nationwide peak; year-over-year progress charges in residence costs continued to reflect nationwide traits, taking a dive for the subsequent few months. However, the place nationwide year-over-year residence value progress charges reached their low ebb in October 2021 at 13.1%, the Illinois year-over-year progress in median sale value that very same month was a mere 4%, and it has stayed within the single digits ever since.
The California housing market contains many main cities, unfold throughout a variety of the state, so making any basic 2022 housing market predictions about it are troublesome. Nevertheless, it’s fascinating that two of the California cities to make this listing of housing markets with the most important progress in stock are within the Sacramento metro space. However the query stays: is the housing market going to crash? The housing market is unlikely to crash prefer it famously did within the 2007-2008 bursting of the housing bubble. For all of the surge in demand and costs and dwindling of provide of houses within the final two years, the present housing market may be very totally different than the market within the years of the lead-up to the housing bubble burst (2005 by means of 2007). These days, NINJA loans (“no revenue, no job, and no belongings”) are now not getting dished out, with absurd loan-to-value ratios, to debtors who clearly are usually not in a position to pay the mortgage on a house whose value is properly past their means. And whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (AR