What occurred

On Tuesday morning, inventory markets turned from crimson to inexperienced. After three days of continuous promoting, the S&P 500 is up a modest 0.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is gaining again 0.4%.

Particular person tech shares are doing even higher. Semiconductor-star Nvidia (NVDA 2.31%) offered off together with all the opposite tech shares final week as buyers fearful about rising inflation, rising rates of interest, depressed investor confidence — and a possible crash in demand for laptop graphics chips. However this morning, Nvidia shares are up a stable 2.4% as of 11 a.m. ET.

Picture supply: Getty Pictures.

So what

What sparked Nvidia’s rally at the moment? Essentially the most on-point information on Nvidia this morning is that cloud-based knowledge storage firm NetApp (NTAP 0.88%) is teaming up with Nvidia to work on artificial-intelligence knowledge facilities. However the corporations’ press launch on this collaboration would not comprise a whole lot of element on the dimensions of this venture or what it means for Nvidia (or for NetApp, both) when it comes to potential revenues or the impression on progress charges. 

Whereas that is an incremental constructive for each shares, I do not see it because the type of information that might justify buyers making a U-turn on Nvidia inventory and immediately shopping for after three straight days of promoting.

Now what

What we’re seeing right here at the moment is a reduction rally, plain and easy — buyers shopping for on the conclusion that the inventory market turned inexperienced at the moment and the sell-off could also be at an finish. Downside is, it might not be at an finish.

Think about this: None of the elements that sparked the sell-off final week has truly modified. Inflation continues to be operating sizzling at 8.5%. The Fed continues to be decided to comprise that inflation.

It could have promised to not elevate rates of interest 0.75% at its subsequent assembly, nevertheless it nonetheless did elevate rates of interest 0.5% final week — the largest rate of interest hike in additional than 20 years. (And it seems intent upon doing at the very least two extra equally sized hikes later this 12 months). Greater rates of interest make all the pieces from company borrowing to bank card payments dearer, and that is prone to sluggish the financial system down over time.

On high of all that, Nvidia inventory continues to be promoting for practically 50 instances trailing earnings, even though it is solely anticipated to develop earnings about 21% yearly over the subsequent 5 years.

Nvidia inventory nonetheless is not low cost but. There’s nonetheless loads of room for it to fall.